Research experience from the University of Dundee points to the Portuguese team as the favorite to win the trophy.

Simulated Euro'2024 10,000 times... and gives Portugal reasons to 'dream'

14:29 - 26/04/24 por Notícias ao Minuto

Desporto UEFA

Craig Edwards, a researcher at the University of Dundee in Scotland, shared the results of a curious experiment on social media on Friday in which he carried out a total of 10,000 simulations of the 2024 European Championship.

And the truth is that the news could not be better for Portugal, starting with the fact that it is given a 67.08% probability of finishing top of Group F, which, it should be remembered, it will share with the Czech Republic, Turkey and Georgia, in the competition to be held in Germany.

Looking further ahead, Roberto Martínez's men have a 95.82% probability of reaching the last 16, a 61.26% probability of reaching the quarter-finals, a 39.10% probability of reaching the semi-finals, a 23.99% probability of reaching the final and a 14.74% probability of being crowned champions.

The researcher used a neural network, which took into account the results achieved by each team in the last five, ten and 20 games, as well as their FIFA ranking, their performances in the last Euros and World Cups and their performances in the qualifying phase.

Here’s the results for my 10,000 EURO 2024 simulations (seen on @jamesallcott’s recent video).

- Portugal are favourites, winning almost 15% of the time
- England in 2nd and are champions in 11.5% of simulations
- Scotland with a 50/50 chance of getting out the group

🧵 pic.twitter.com/Vpi5rC3rVt
— Craig Edwards (@UnderthePitch) April 26, 2024

Read Also: Melhor Pote de sempre 'pisca o olho' ao Dragão... e a Roberto Martínez (Portuguese version)

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	Clube	J	PTS
1	Sporting CP	34	90
2	Benfica	34	80
3	FC Porto	34	72
4	Braga	34	68
5	Guimaraes	34	63
6	Moreirense	34	55
7	Arouca	34	46
8	FC Famalicao	34	42
9	Casa Pia	34	38
10	SC Farense	34	37
11	Rio Ave	34	37
12	Gil Vicente	34	36
13	Estoril	34	33
14	Estrela	34	33
15	Boavista	34	32
16	Portimonense	34	32
17	Vizela	34	26
18	GD Chaves	34	23

	Clube	J	PTS
1	Real Madrid	36	93
2	Barcelona	36	79
3	Girona	36	75
4	Atlético Madrid	36	73
5	Athletic Club	36	62
6	Real Sociedad	36	57
7	Real Betis	36	56
8	Villarreal	36	51
9	Valencia	36	48
10	Alavés	37	45
11	Getafe	37	43
12	Sevilla	36	41
13	Osasuna	36	41
14	Las Palmas	36	38
15	Rayo Vallecano	36	38
16	Celta Vigo	36	37
17	Mallorca	36	36
18	Cádiz	36	32
19	Granada	36	21
20	Almería	36	17

	Clube	J	PTS
1	Manchester City	37	88
2	Arsenal	37	86
3	Liverpool	37	79
4	Aston Villa	37	68
5	Tottenham Hotspur	37	63
6	Chelsea	37	60
7	Newcastle United	37	57
8	Manchester United	37	57
9	West Ham United	37	52
10	Brighton & Hove Albion	37	48
11	AFC Bournemouth	37	48
12	Crystal Palace	37	46
13	Wolverhampton Wanderers	37	46
14	Fulham	37	44
15	Everton	37	40
16	Brentford	37	39
17	Nottingham Forest	37	29
18	Luton Town	37	26
19	Burnley	37	24
20	Sheffield United	37	16

	Clube	J	PTS
1	Internazionale	36	92
2	AC Milan	37	74
3	Bologna	36	67
4	Juventus	36	67
5	Atalanta	36	66
6	AS Roma	36	60
7	Lazio	36	59
8	Fiorentina	36	54
9	Torino	37	53
10	Napoli	37	52
11	Genoa	36	46
12	Monza	36	45
13	Lecce	37	37
14	Hellas Verona	36	34
15	Udinese	36	33
16	Cagliari	36	33
17	Frosinone	36	32
18	Empoli	36	32
19	Sassuolo	36	29
20	Salernitana	36	16

	Jogador	Golos
1	Viktor Gyokeres	29
2	Simon Banza	21
3	Rafa Mújica	20
4	Paulinho	15
5	Jhonder Cádiz	15
6	Samuel Essende	15
7	Cristo Gonzalez	15
8	Rafa Silva	14
9	Héctor Hernández	14
10	Evanilson	13

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Simulated Euro'2024 10,000 times... and gives Portugal reasons to 'dream'

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	Jogador	Golos
1	Artem Dovbyk	20
2	Jude Bellingham	19
3	Alexander Sorloth	19
4	Robert Lewandowski	17
5	Ante Budimir	16
6	Antoine Griezmann	16
7	Vinícius Júnior	15
8	Borja Mayoral	15
9	Youssef En Nesiry	15
10	Samuel Omorodion Aghehowa	1

	Jogador	Golos
1	Erling Braut Haland	27
2	Cole Palmer	22
3	Alexander Isak	20
4	Ollie Watkins	19
5	Dominic Solanke	19
6	Mohamed Salah	18
7	Phil Foden	17
8	Son Heung-Min	17
9	Bukayo Saka	16
10	Jarrod Bowen	16

	Jogador	Golos
1	Lautaro Martínez	24
2	Dusan Vlahovic	16
3	Victor Osimhen	15
4	Olivier Giroud	14
5	Albert Thor Gudmundsson	14
6	Paulo Dybala	13
7	Hakan Calhanoglu	13
8	Marcus Thuram	13
9	Duvan Zapata	13
10	Teun Koopmeiners	12

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Simulated Euro'2024 10,000 times... and gives Portugal reasons to 'dream'

Research experience from the University of Dundee points to the Portuguese team as the favorite to win the trophy.

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