But the results of the research, according to a statement released by the University of Coimbra, showed that climate change will have an "increased negative impact" on both biodiversity and ecosystem services (the benefits of nature).

"Although changes in land use continue to play a relevant role, climate change will tend to become the main cause of biodiversity loss by the first half of this century", the document warns.

The study, the largest using climate models carried out to date, was led by the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) and the Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), with the participation of Portuguese researchers, including Carlos Guerra, a professor at the Faculty of Arts of the University of Coimbra (FLUC), and Henrique Pereira, a researcher at the Centre for Research in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources of the University of Porto.

Changes in land use, due to agriculture or the expansion of cities, for example, are one of the main causes of biodiversity loss, but the statement says that the real extent of this decline in recent decades has divided scientists.

To better answer these questions, the scientists used climate models and compared 13 models to calculate the impacts of changes in land use and climate change on four different biodiversity indicators, and on nine ecosystem services.

Quoted in the document, Henrique Pereira says that the inclusion of all regions of the world in the model allowed for better results.

The researchers also used other models to calculate the simultaneous impact of land use changes on the so-called ecosystem services, the benefits that nature provides to human beings.

It was based on these studies that the team concluded that climate change is becoming more relevant in terms of biodiversity loss.

Evaluating three scenarios, between one of sustainable development and one of high greenhouse gas emissions, the researchers concluded that in all three cases "the combination of the impact of land use changes and climate change results in a loss of biodiversity in all regions of the world", with significant variations between regions, models and scenarios, the statement says.

"This study illustrates very clearly the impacts resulting from human actions on the planet and on the biodiversity on which we depend and the extent of the changes that are occurring all over the world", says Carlos Guerra, quoted in the statement.

Admitting that the scenarios did not use all possible measures and that "there will certainly be inaccuracies" in the models, the researchers nevertheless leave a warning: "Our results clearly show that current policies are insufficient to achieve international biodiversity targets. We need renewed efforts to make progress against one of the world's biggest problems, which is the loss of biodiversity caused by human action".

Read Also: Biodiversity decreased between 2% and 11% in the 20th century (Portuguese version)

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