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IMF forecasts Angola's growth sustained by the non-oil sector
The economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who coordinated the report on sub-Saharan Africa considered today to Lusa that the growth of Angola this year is sustained by the non-oil sector and predicts high inflation.
© Lusa
Mundo FMI
"The Angolan economy remained resilient last year; after recovering in 2021 and 2022, in 2023 it was strongly hit by a decline in oil production and prices, coinciding with the end of the moratorium" on debt payments, following the suspension of payments due to the covid-19 pandemic, Thibault Lemaire told Lusa at the end of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, which took place in Washington until Saturday.
The IMF forecasts growth of 2.6% and 3.1% this year and next in Angola, below the 3.8% and 4% estimated for the sub-Saharan Africa region, and above the 0.5% in 2023, according to the update of the forecasts presented last week.
Even so, the Fund forecasts a "gradual recovery of economic activity in 2024, supported by the performance of the oil and non-oil economy, with inflation remaining high this year and gradually slowing down".
In the reports released last week, the Fund forecast that, after a 13.6% increase last year, prices would rise 22% this year and 12.8% in 2025.
In terms of recommendations, the economist responsible for coordinating the report on sub-Saharan Africa, released on Friday, says that "in the short and medium term, budgetary consolidation and reforms in this area are essential to strengthen the sustainability of the budget and public debt" and concludes that "accelerating the implementation of structural reforms is essential to ensure macroeconomic stability and promote diversified, resilient and inclusive growth".
In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to increase from around 3.4% forecast in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, "with the negative effects of climate shocks remaining and problems in supply chains gradually improving", says the Fund.
Globally, the IMF improved the global growth forecast by one tenth to 3.2% this year, a rate it also expects for next year.
The institution led by Kristalina Georgieva forecasts that global growth, estimated at 3.2% in 2023, will continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025.
The forecast for 2024 was revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points (pp) compared to the January report and by 0.3 (pp) compared to October last year.
Read Also: "Correction" of house prices in Portugal will not be "sudden" (Portuguese version)
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