Meteorologia

  • 18 MAIO 2024
Tempo
14º
MIN 13º MÁX 20º

"The worst crisis that can exist in a country is a housing market crisis"

The housing crisis could be solved with more construction, but it is necessary to ensure that the supply is not excessive to avoid a crisis in the opposite direction, warned today, in the Algarve, the Governor of the Bank of Portugal (BdP).

"The worst crisis that can exist in a country is a housing market crisis"
Notícias ao Minuto

21:57 - 23/04/24 por Lusa

Economia Mário Centeno

In a classroom with economics students from the Vila Real de Santo António secondary school, in the Faro district, Mário Centeno recalled the times when he studied at that educational establishment, told the students that "luck only happens to those who are prepared" and, in response to a student, warned that housing crises can have "devastating" effects on the economy, but they need "a lot of time" to be resolved.
When asked by a 10th grade student about the policies that should be followed to "avoid exaggerated real estate prices in Portugal and carry out a true reform in the housing area", Centeno recalled the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis that followed, which had a "strong impact on Portugal" and other European countries. "[The crisis] had a consequence, and that consequence was - sometimes it is better not to use too many adjectives, but I will abuse it a little here, despite the cameras [of the media present] - devastating for the construction sector," he said, stressing that the result was "more than a decade" with the construction sector in Portugal "practically stagnant". The former Minister of Finance recalled the law of supply and demand and stressed that, in Portugal, "supply was stagnant, new constructions were few, and demand was growing", although this growth was not influenced by demographic issues, because, without immigration, there would even be less population in the country. "When prices and the amount transacted go in the same direction, it means that this market is being impacted by forces that come from the demand side. And that is what has been happening in Portugal since 20214: the price increases and the amount transacted increases," he pointed out. Driven by growing demand from foreigners, there was an increase in demand for housing, but "this process is slow" on the supply side, "more than anyone would like", not allowing for a drop in housing prices, he warned. "I insist, it is not only in Portugal, it is in all of Europe, and the original reason, in my opinion, is that we exaggerated the response we gave to the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, in the reduction we made in the construction sector," he considered. In addition to taking time to build, "Portugal did not grow in terms of population" and the "structural need for housing did not increase", said Mário Centeno, contrasting that there are countries that are at the opposite pole, such as China or Japan, "which have exactly the opposite crisis" by having an excess of houses. "And I can assure you that the worst crisis that can exist in a country is a housing market crisis," he argued, stressing that the drop in prices has an influence on the loss of value of real estate and those who borrowed money to buy a house end up "paying a much higher price for the house than what the houses are actually worth". "When this happens, and it happened in Europe, in Sweden, in Finland, in the 1990s, this crisis has an enormous destructive capacity in countries," he argued, considering that the option is "a process of increasing the supply of housing", but being "very careful not to generate phenomena of excess supply" that generates another crisis. Also Read: Centeno does not rule out that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in June (Portuguese version)

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