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Standard & Poor's decide to maintain Mozambique's 'rating' at CCC+
The financial rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) decided today to maintain Mozambique's 'rating' at CCC+, with the good prospects for gas exports from 2028 being offset by the current high financial risks.
© Reuters
Economia Standard & Poor's
In the note accompanying the affirmation of the CCC+ rating, the third-lowest on its sovereign scale, with a stable outlook, S&P said that "Mozambique continues to face liquidity challenges, as evidenced by payment arrears to creditors in 2023 and the accumulation of arrears to suppliers and contractors."
In the report, sent to investors and seen by Lusa, S&P acknowledges that "the government is implementing measures to improve public financial management and consolidate its finances," but adds that "risks to fiscal slippage stem from still-high wage bill costs, elevated spending to address climate-related shocks, rising debt service costs, and election-related spending this year."
The stable outlook, meaning that S&P does not expect Mozambique's rating to improve or worsen over the next 12 months, "reflects the balance between Mozambique's persistent institutional weaknesses in debt management and ongoing liquidity pressures on the one hand, and more favourable medium-term growth prospects on the other."
In the note, S&P also writes that the resumption of work by French oil company TotalEnergies in Cabo Delgado "could take place" in the second half of the year, which would see the first natural gas exports emerge in 2028, but "until the substantial revenues from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects have a tangible impact, and absent an improvement in liquidity management, the risk of further payment delays or a 'distressed' debt exchange [with investors losing out on the contractual terms originally agreed] remains elevated."
Thus, they conclude, "Mozambique's fiscal position will remain under pressure until LNG production from the mega-projects begins, weighing on the country's capacity to meet its debt obligations on time."
The CCC rating is the third-lowest after Default, and is two levels below investment grade.
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